For weeks, the war skirted the edge of catastrophe without tipping over. Missiles flew, there was much destruction, commanders were assassinated, cities across the Gulf and even in Israel struggled to absorb the shock. But one line held: Energy infrastructure, the arteries of the global economy, remained largely untouched. That is no longer true. Prem Panicker continues his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that Israel and the US struck Iran because Tehran had restarted its nuclear programme and it would have gone 'immune within months'. He claimed Iran was building new underground sites to shield its missile and nuclear programmes from attacks.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian maintained a stance of defensive necessity, noting that Tehran is "forced to retaliate to attacks" but clarified that this does not imply a dispute with neighbouring countries
'The White House lunch that Trump hosted for Munir last year came just after Munir returned from a visit to Iran, at a moment when Israel and Iran were at war.' 'Trump said after that lunch that the Pakistanis know Iran very well. He likely views Munir as a useful interlocutor that can give helpful insights on Iran.'
The big question is whether Trump is any longer in command of the situation. For all practical purposes, the war seems set to cascade as the US is preparing for a potential ground operation in Iran and threatens to destroy 'bridges next, then electric power plants', points out Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
'Strikes into the Gulf countries are proof that the security guarantees offered by the US are ineffective and that the Gulf countries cannot rely on American security assurances for their safety.'
India's handling of the Iran crisis reflects a growing strain between strategic autonomy and geopolitical alignment, observes Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
'Despite the large number of missiles and drones we have already launched, we still possess reserves and missile cities whose doors have not yet been opened,' says Iran's Consul-General Saeid Reza Mosayeb Motlagh.
'Much will depend on the position of the United States.' 'It will have to be seen to what extent the US will be more interested in achieving some form of a deal and to what extent Israel will be allowed to continue to carry out both airstrikes and the killing of Iranian officials.'
'The next two to three weeks will not be decided in Washington.' 'They will be decided in Tehran, in whatever calculation Iran makes about the costs of continued resistance against the costs of appearing to have yielded.'
India and the UK have announced a series of defence cooperation initiatives, including a USD 468 million deal for the supply of lightweight multirole missile systems to enhance India's air defence capabilities.
The Indian embassy in Saudi Arabia has confirmed that one Indian national was injured in a projectile incident in Al Kharj, while clarifying that there were no Indian fatalities. The embassy is providing assistance and is in contact with Saudi authorities.
When missiles fly in this region, they are never just aimed at military targets.
Iran is fighting a different war: Older, slower, and in some ways more dangerous. Iran doesn't need to shoot down an F/A-18. It only needs to make the Strait of Hormuz feel dangerous long enough for insurance markets, shipping companies, and oil futures traders to do the rest. Prem Panicker continues his must-read daily blog on the war in the Middle East.
The ministry of interior of Bahrain on Sunday claimed that Iran attacked civilian targets in a water desalination plant after a drone attack.
'Our diplomacy should have been focused on preventing war and avoiding the inevitable disruptions it would cause, posing a real risk to India's growth story,' asserts former foreign secretary Shyam Saran.
'Without ground troops the US will not be able to oust the Iranian Islamic regime. Political change does not happen just by using bombs or planes.'
The Indian Defence Ministry has approved the procurement of 114 Rafale fighter jets from France, a significant step towards bolstering the Indian Air Force's combat capabilities. The decision comes ahead of French President Emmanuel Macron's visit to India.
Iran launched retaliatory military strikes targeting Israel and American military bases across the region, including in Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Bahrain and Jordan.
As days turn into weeks and America loses more planes, as the destruction of trillions of dollars worth military assets piles up, and dead bodies of soldiers return in ever greater numbers in coffins, Trump will have to answer some very difficult questions to save his presidency, notes Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced a joint operation with the US against Iran, citing the threat posed by its nuclear ambitions and support for terrorism.
Dubai's core promise -- that it is an oasis untouched by regional storms -- has been tested in full public view. The coming months will show whether investors view the attacks as a short-lived disruption or a deeper signal of lasting risk, points out Asif Ullah Khan.
The Indian government has directed oil refineries to increase LPG production to ensure a stable supply of domestic cooking gas, amidst concerns over potential disruptions from the escalating Middle East conflict and its impact on imports.
'The additional Rafales will be from a vastly improved version compared to the 36 acquired for the IAF under the 2016 deal.'
Israel and the United States had a plan. Iran punched back. And now the Gulf is reeling, the world is beginning to feel the pain and, as on date, no one in Washington or Tel Aviv appears willing to admit that the punch has landed, notes Prem Panicker, continuing his must-read blog on the war in the Middle East.
When everyone has footage and no one can verify it, the loudest voice wins, notes Prem Panicker who begins a daily blog on the War in the Middle East.
Fight on toward goals that keep receding, or exit with most objectives unmet. Trump is agitated, his poll numbers falling below the Plimsoll line, his base fractured between those who back the war and those who remember that he campaigned on ending them.
What we are watching is something different: A fog manufactured and maintained by the people who started the war, so that the question of why it was started never has to be answered, observes Prem Panicker in his must read blog on the war in the Middle East.
'I suspect that Bangladesh being given permission stuck in India's official craw, and this story was an attempt to balance the scales by giving the impression that a similar waiver had been given to India as well.'
The British government has called for a negotiated solution to prevent further escalation of conflict in the Middle East following joint strikes by the US and Israel on Iran, emphasizing the safety of UK nationals and the need to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons.
The threat of wars hovers over the negotiations in Oman, but the good part is that Trump called the talks to be 'very good' and Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian responded that they 'constitute a step forward', points out Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
If the oil infrastructure is attacked by the United States, the whole area could be flooded with oil, spilling into the Persian Gulf.
India possesses approximately 100 million barrels of commercial crude oil stocks, capable of covering 40-45 days of its requirements if flows through the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted, according to Kpler.
The Defence Acquisition Council (DAC) has recently approved procurement proposals worth Rs 79,000 crore across three services and it has cleared AoN (Acceptance of Necessity) of Rs 3.3 trillion in financial year 2026 (FY26).
'We need to give Pakistan something serious to think about on its eastern front -- that is the only way to actually help Afghanistan right now.'
Israel has for more than two decades and several US presidencies worked to draw the United States into a full-scale war with Iran. Having finally achieved that, the last thing it wants is Trump declaring victory and going home, as he is prone to do. Ali Larijani was the figure most capable of handing Trump a negotiated exit with something to show for it. Without Larijani, the road to an exit gets considerably narrower. Prem Panicker continues his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
Admiral Samuel J Paparo, Commander of the US Indo-Pacific Command, lauded India's military restraint during Operation Sindoor and emphasized the growing India-US defence partnership aimed at maintaining peace and security in the Indo-Pacific region.
In a statement, the US embassy said the Department of War's September 30 announcement referred to "an amendment to an existing Foreign Military Sales contract for sustainment and spares for several countries, including Pakistan."
The defence ministry is likely to take up the proposal by the Indian Air Force for approval at a defence acquisition council meeting planned to be held on October 23, sources said.
India and Israel have elevated their relationship to a special strategic partnership, focusing on enhanced cooperation in trade, technology, and defense, while also addressing regional peace initiatives.
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